David a Goliáš jihovýchodní Asie: jak Vietnam reaguje na mocenský vzestup Číny? Prečítať

DAVID AND GOLIATH OF SOUTH EAST ASIA: HOW VIETNAM DEALS WITH THE RISE OF POWER OF CHINA?

Pavel Hlaváček

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Politické vedy, Volume 18, Number 2/2015, pages 8-41 

Odporúčaná forma citácie článku / Recommended form for quotation of the article:

HLAVÁČEK, P. 2015. David a Goliáš jihovýchodní Asie: jak Vietnam reaguje na mocenský vzestup Číny?. In Politické vedy. [online]. Roč. 18, č. 3, 2015. ISSN 1335 – 2741, s. 42-65. Dostupné na internete:<http://www.politickevedy.fpvmv.umb.sk/userfiles/file/3_2015/HLAVACEK.pdf>.

ABSTRACT

Chinese ambitions and recent activities in the South China Sea make small countries of South East Asia increasingly nervous. How do they reply to the rise of Chinese power? In this article, I argue that challenges Vietnam faces from China could be compared to the battle of David and Goliath. If these two actors clash in conventional manners, the result will be almost resolved for China. In order to offset potential losses, Vietnam belongs to those countries of South East Asia that have applied “hedging strategy” into its foreign policy. In essence, my argument is that government in Hanoi will do its best to keep good relations as long as it is possible with both, China and the United States. There have been is indications that US-Vietnam relations have been improving since the end of the Cold War. However, any improvement with Washington has been follow by improvements with Beijing. Although it is extremely difficult to predict how will balance of power in South East Asia evolve and what impact it might have on alliance system in the region, we might conclude that – ceteris paribus – any other strategy, than hedging would be too limiting and too costly for Vietnam.

Key words: Hedging strategy, Vietnam, China, USA, Southeast Asia, balancing, bandwagoning